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Special Covid-19 Series, Issue #11

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Date: 26 May 2020

Type: Other

Topic: Action Institute

This is the eleventh issue of the Action Special COVID-19 Series that Action Institute is publishing to provide an overview of the novel Coronavirus pandemic, in which the effects of the virus are approached from different perspectives: from medical facts to health policy, from economic policy to macroeconomic issues, from politics to financial markets, from technology to the impact on businesses and more.

 

In this tenth issue you find a selection of papers and articles in three areas: (i) Macroeconomic Issues, (ii) Impact on Business, (iii) Politics, Institutions and International Policy and (iv) Financial Markets.

 

MACROECONOMIC ISSUES
“Economics has never been a science – and it is even less now than a few years ago.”, Paul Samuelson

 

COVID-19 crisis in the euro area: Recession or ‘double-peak’ expansion?” (Vox.eu, Philippe Weil, Refet Gürkaynak, John Fernald, Evi Pappa, Antonella Trigari, May 12th, 2020). The authors, after some necessary methodological clarifications, express their opinion on where the euro-area could be in terms of business cycle phase.

 “Covid-19 is speeding up China’s rise as a financial rival to America” (The Economist, May 12th, 2020). The article highlights the main reasons behind China’s increasing importance in global finance.

 “Gauging the impact of COVID-19 on market-based inflation expectations” (Vox.eu, Dirk Broeders, Gavin Goy, Annelie Petersen, Nander de Vette, May 19th, 2020). In the column, the authors show that markets now expect the outbreak of COVID-19 to be a persistent disinflationary shock.

Why the coming emerging markets debt crisis will be messy” (Financial Times, Colby Smith e Robin Willesworth, May 12th, 2020). The authors articulate on how troubles on emerging markets might quickly arise and spread through the most developed countries, mostly due to the always more prominent role of China as an international creditor.

Why the US jobless surge is worse than in Europe” (Financial Times, Gavyn Davies, May 17th, 2020). The article summarizes the different impact of the recent employment support measures in Europe and the US.

IMPACT ON BUSINESS
“In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield.”, Warren Buffett.

 

mckCOVID-19’s effect on jobs at small businesses in the United States” (McKinsey Institute, André Dua, Neha Jain, Deepa Mahajan, e Yohann Velasco, May 5th, 2020). The authors explain how the COVID-19 crisis is endangering more markedly the jobs of small business employees, who already have lower wages and education levels.

Chinese companies rush to exploit global medical equipment shortages ” (Financial Times, Sun Yu, Xinning Liu e Tom Mitchell, May 11th, 2020). The article deals with the high global reliance on Chinese-made medical equipment during the Coronavirus pandemic and the limitations of it.

 “America Inc faces a wave of bankruptcies” (The Economist, May 16th, 2020). The article discusses some alternative hypotheses on how to face the imminent second wave of bankruptcies caused by the COVID-19 crisis.

 “Creative destruction in times of covid” (The Economist, May 16th, 2020). The article presents a positive post-COVID-19-crisis scenario, where both start-ups and big firms will have the opportunity to emerge and succeed.

 “How Will Aviation Giants Emerge From the Pandemic?” (Council On Foreign Relations, Jonathan Masters, May 19th, 2020). The article deals with the challenges the strategic aviation sector is facing due to the Coronavirus pandemic travel ban.

POLITICS, INSTITUTIONS AND INTERNATIONAL POLICY
“Just because you do not take an interest in politics, it doesn’t mean that politics won’t take an interest in you.”, Pericles.

 

What Xi knew: pressure builds on China’s leader” (Financial Times, Tom Mitchell, May 21st, 2020). The article traces the relevant steps of the Chinese handling of the epidemic, questioning the reliability of the available information.

The EU’s fate rests on Germany’s identity crisis” (Financial Times, Philip Stephens, May 21st, 2020). The article talks about the central and very delicate role of Germany in the current functioning of the European Union.

 “European leaders are appealing directly to voters in other countries” (Economist, May 7th, 2020). The article discusses the communication strategies adopted by Southern European Countries to influence the European public opinion in their favour.

The Coming Post-COVID Anarchy” (Foreign Affairs, Kevin Rudd, May 6th, 2020). The author presents different scenarios of the post-COVID-19 global order, with particular emphasis on the future roles of US and China.

FINANCIAL MARKETS
“Markets are moved by animal spirits, and not by reason.”, John Maynard Keynes.

 

What the history of market crashes teaches us about the coronavirus crisis” (Financial Times, Peter Oppenheimer, May 12th, 2020). The article summarizes the main lessons on market crashes learnt so far and gives us some insights on what may happen next.

Jumping into the next cycle ” (Financial Times, Michael Mackenzie, May 18th, 2020). The author outlines the current market trends and what is on their radars.

Investors struggle to hear signals from bond markets” (Financial Times, Colby Smith and Tommy Stubbington, May 12th, 2020). In the article, the authors explain why and how the enormous scale of Fed’s operation has overridden the regular signalling mechanism.

Credit

Let me remind you that credit is the lifeblood of business, the lifeblood of prices and jobs.

Herbert Hoover

Health

Good health is essential to social and economical development and it empowers all of the public sectors.

World Health Organization

Innovation

Innovation is the specific instrument of entrepreneurship. The act that endows resources with a new capacity to create wealth.

Peter Drucker

Human Capital

Talent is a source from which water flows constantly renewed. But this source loses its value unless it is properly used.

Ludwig Wittgenstein