SINGLE-PUBBLICAZIONE

Special Covid-19 Series, Issue #2

Autore :

Data: 20-03-2020

Tipo: Other

Tematica: Action Institute

This is a series of Specials to provide an overview of the COVID-19 pandemic, approaching it from different perspectives: from medical facts to health policy, from economic policy to macroeconomic issues, from politics to financial markets, from technology to the impact on businesses and more.

 

In this second issue you find a selection of papers and articles in three areas: (i) Politics, Institutions and International Policy, (ii) Macroeconomic Issues and (iii) Financial Markets.

 

POLITICS, INSTITUTIONS AND INTERNATIONAL POLICY
“Just because you do not take an interest in politics, it doesn’t mean that politics won’t take an interest in you.”, Pericles.

 

 “The politics of pandemics” (The Economist, March 12, 2020). The article provides a compendium of the difficulties that politicians are facing as the pandemic spreads throughout the World.

 “Coronavirus’ next victim: populism” (Politico, Otto English, March 18, 2020). In the article, the author examines Johnson’s and Trump’s approaches to the Coronavirus crisis and argues that the current pandemic may bring an end to populism.

 “Does the EU have the tools to fight the Coronavirus?” (Politico, Carmen Paun and Jillian Deutsch, March 16, 2020). The authors analyse the few supranational measures at Europe’s disposal to address the current pandemic.

 “More Europe or less?” (The Economist, March 20, 2020). The article revisits the current state of political affairs in Europe, where as some national leaders claim “more Europe” others push for the opposite.

 “Coronavirus could break the EU” (Politico, Dalibor Rohac, March 16, 2020). The author explains how the economic shock caused by the COVID-19 disease could lead to EU’s unraveling.

 “What COVID-19 means for international cooperation” (Brookings, Kemal Derviş and Sebastian Strauss, March 6, 2020). Two political trends can emerge from the spread of the novel Coronavirus: either a reduction in global connectedness (deglobalisation) or a greater demand for international cooperation, which will eventually benefit the climate emergency as well.

 “Coronavirus, campaigns, and connectivity” (Brookings, Tom Wheeler, March 12, 2020). The author reflects on what could be the consequences of the novel Coronavirus contagion on the US presidential campaign. The article suggests the best way in which social media can contribute to the political discourse, and the dangers for the democratic process.

 “What the Coronavirus means for China’s foreign policy” (Carnegie Endowment, Paul Haenle, March 11, 2020).  The author reflects on the future impact of COVID-19 on the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, the US-China trade deal and China’s status in the international community.

 

MACROECONOMIC ISSUES
“Economics has never been a science – and it is even less now than a few years ago.”, Paul Samuelson.

 

 “The global macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19: seven scenarios” (Brookings, Warwick McKibbin and Roshen Fernando, March 2, 2020). The authors run a model considering seven potential scenarios caused by the novel Coronavirus. They find that even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the global economy in the short run and reiterate the importance of investments in national health systems.

 “Three macroeconomic issues and COVID-19” (Bruegel, Leonardo Cadamuro and Francesco Papadia, March 10, 2020). The authors attempt to shed light on three macroeconomic issues raised by COVID-19: the downfall in supply and demand, the lower expected growth and the potential impact on credit supply in Italy.

 “Economies can rebound quickly from massive GDP slumps—but not always” (The Economist, March 19, 2020). The article deals with the velocity and modalities with which damaged economies managed to recover from massive shocks such as wars or deep financial crises.

 “The cost of coronavirus in terms of interrupted global value chains” (Bruegel, Maria Demertzis and Gerard Masllorens, March 9, 2020). Based on input-output models, this article analyses the disruption of global value chains between Europe and China, identifying which will be the most affected countries.

 

FINANCIAL MARKETS
“Markets are moved by animal spirits, and not by reason.”, John Maynard Keynes.

 

 “V is for Vicious – How to deal with a new sort of financial shock” (The Economist, March 12, 2020). Despite some similarities between the 2007-09 crisis and the financial shock caused by the novel Coronavirus, the author explains why the two crises are not comparable in terms of source, severity and nature of the shocks.

 “Why America’s financial plumbing has seized up” (The Economist, March 19, 2020). The article gives an overview of the current cash crisis that markets are facing, explaining both the underlying causes and the possible future effects.

 “How this market crash is different from 2008, and the same” (Financial Times, Mohamed El-Erian, March 9, 2020). The author explains the three causes of today’s economic turbulence: the novel Coronavirus has hit both economic supply and demand, central bank’s room for manoeuvre is limited as policy interest rates are already negative in Europe and the oil price war has harmed part of the corporate bond market.

 “The seeds of the next crisis” (Financial Times, John Plender, March 4, 2020). The article explains how, if the virus continues to spread, any fragility in the financial system could have the potential to trigger a new debt crisis.

 “How Coronavirus became a corporate credit run” (Financial Times, Rana Foroohar, March 15, 2020). The author explains how the virus-induced brake on consumer activity and labour markets has triggered a corporate credit run, as firms draw down their high-quality deposits at banks.

Credit

Let me remind you that credit is the lifeblood of business, the lifeblood of prices and jobs.

Herbert Hoover […]

Health

Good health is essential to social and economical development and it empowers all of the public sectors.

World Health Organization […]

Innovation

Innovation is the specific instrument of entrepreneurship. The act that endows resources with a new capacity to create wealth.

Peter Drucker […]

Human Capital

Talent is a source from which water flows constantly renewed. But this source loses its value unless it is properly used.

Ludwig Wittgenstein […]